The escalating Middle East conflict has cast fresh uncertainty over Botswana's P160 billion investment arrangement with Qatar's Al Mansour Holdings, which remains without publicly confirmed financing commitments.
Oman's 500MW solar project in Maun, meanwhile, has progressed to a signed power purchase agreement and a groundbreaking ceremony.
President Duma Boko announced the $12 billion Al Mansour partnership in August 2025, presenting it as an investment breakthrough covering energy, infrastructure, mining, agriculture, tourism, cybersecurity and defence.
However, an update to Parliament in April showed that the agreement had yet to translate into confirmed project implementation.
According to local media reports, Minister of Trade and Entrepreneurship Tiroeaone Ntsima told Parliament it was not a binding investment commitment, but an undertaking by Al Mansour Holdings to consider financing commercially viable projects.
Botswana Development Corporation (BDC) submitted 21 project proposals on September 25, 2025, but was still awaiting feedback when the parliamentary update was given.
The disclosure contrasted with the optimism surrounding the original announcement.
"This partnership is not just about numbers on paper. It is about turning words into real projects, real investments, and real change for our people," Boko said at the time.
Boko later clarified that the announcement did not mean billions of dollars had already been transferred to Botswana. The potential investment remained subject to project feasibility and financing requirements.
The arrangement now faces a more difficult regional economic environment following the outbreak of war involving Iran, Israel and the United States in February this year.
In its October 6 assessment, the World Bank projected that Qatar's economy would contract by 20.9 percent in 2026, while Gulf Cooperation Council economies would shrink by an average of 4.3 percent.
The Bank said Qatar's average monthly natural gas production fell by about 67 percent between March and July following damage to energy infrastructure.
Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have added uncertainty over trade and investment. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned this week that the economic effects could persist beyond the conflict, particularly through elevated energy prices.
Oman's Botswana project, meanwhile, has moved beyond preliminary commitments.
The Oman Investment Authority, through its subsidiary O-Green, has signed a power purchase agreement with Botswana Power Corporation for a 500MW solar facility in Maun, supported by battery energy storage.
The project has reached the groundbreaking stage and is expected to operate under a 30-year power purchase agreement.
Although full financing arrangements and construction disbursements have not been publicly established, the signed agreement marks a more advanced project milestone than the non-binding Al Mansour arrangement.
There is, however, no established evidence that the conflict has directly delayed the Qatar arrangement or caused Al Mansour Holdings to reconsider its proposed investment.
During the April proceedings, Leader of Opposition Dumelang Saleshando questioned why government had announced such a substantial arrangement before projects were ready for financing.
Ntsima defended the announcement, saying it could yield investments in future.
"We were announcing an agreement of a partnership that can yield results for us in the future," he told Parliament.
No subsequent binding financing commitment or capital disbursement under the $12 billion arrangement has been independently established from the public information examined.
